ICYMI: "Don't Give Trump Credit for the Success of the Biden Economy"

In 66 days, President-elect Trump will inherit "the strongest economy in modern history," "an economy primed for growth," "booming markets and solid growth," an economy that is "pretty damn good," and investments "flowing" to "rural and manufacturing communities."

In short: "Incoming presidents who defeat an incumbent party are rarely dealt so strong a hand."

Read more below:

AP: Biden funded new factories and infrastructure projects, but Trump might get to cut the ribbons
[Josh Boak and Zeke Miller, 11/12/24]

All that's left is for President-elect Donald Trump to put his name on it — if he wants.

Trump won the White House in large part because of voters' frustration with high prices and a sense that the United States needs major changes. But when he enters office in January, Trump will inherit an economy primed for growth.

The unemployment rate is low, inflation is easing and President Joe Biden's administration has teed-up a ready-made list of infrastructure projects that could go from theoretical to reality over the next several years. There's the TSMC computer chip plant in Arizona, the new Hyundai electric vehicle factory in Georgia and a modernized I-375 in Michigan, among thousands of projects under way that will take years to complete.

All of that means it could be Trump, rather than Biden, who gets to tell Americans that he built the country back better. If he decides to let the projects proceed, that is.

Biden, himself, acknowledged last week that the positive economic impacts from his policies would occur after his term ends in January.

"Much of the work we've done is already being felt by the American people, but the vast majority will not be felt, will be felt over the next 10 years," he said in remarks in the Rose Garden. "It's going to take time, but it's there. The road ahead is clear."

Trump wants to reverse Biden's policies, but construction is already ongoing
While Trump on the campaign trail railed against Biden's record, he has offered few details on what initiatives he might scrap. Trump said in September that he would "rescind all unspent funds under the misnamed Inflation Reduction Act " and said on Joe Rogan's podcast that tariffs would do more for manufacturing than the funding provided by the CHIPS and Science Act.

But Biden aides privately told The Associated Press that they expect Trump to continue the planned projects and take credit for Biden's accomplishments, just like the Republicans in Congress who've celebrated plant openings and infrastructure developments in their districts but voted against them.

The administration has spent millions of dollars to put up road signs to promote Biden's role in the projects; all Trump would need to do is re-label them with his own name. Biden aides feel confident that Trump won't want to cut programs that are helping states he won in this year's election even if Republicans try for a token repeal of some provisions in order to help fund some of their own tax cut plans. […]

Natalie Quillian, a deputy chief of staff for Biden's White House, said that the administration's programs are already starting to make a positive difference for the economy.

"We have already announced investments for 70,000 infrastructure and clean energy projects, catalyzed nearly $1 trillion in private sector investment, lowered prescription drug prices, and created 1.6 million construction and manufacturing jobs," she said. "Over the coming months, we will continue to run through the tape and ensure Americans benefit from this president's agenda for years to come."

Trump is entering the White House as the economy is improving
Trump is also inheriting by many measures an increasingly healthy economy, despite his claims that conditions are miserable.

The Republican won the election with the unemployment rate at a healthy 4.1%, inflation at 2.4% and the Federal Reserve cutting its benchmark rates in ways that could support additional growth. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell summarized the situation last week by saying the economy is "strong overall." […]

Possible pressure to embrace renewable energy and EVs
There is a recognition among some Republican lawmakers that the energy tax credits that were part of the Inflation Reduction Act were positives and should be preserved. Eighteen GOP House members sent House Speaker Mike Johnson a letter in August asking him to preserve the tax credits.

Economists supporting Trump also note that sales growth for EVs could jump under the incoming administration, which has the support of Tesla CEO Elon Musk. […]

TIME (Opinion): Don't Give Trump Credit for the Success of the Biden Economy
[Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and Stephen Henriques, 11/14/24]

Then-President-elect Biden inherited an economy from President Trump in shambles with the greatest economic collapse in the post-World War II era due to COVID-19.

However, by, contrast, President-elect Trump is receiving the strongest economy in modern history which is the envy of the world. Despite understandable concerns about post-Covid inflation, prices continue to fall as wages rise. President Trump will likely claim he waved a magic wand on January 20 and the economic clouds cleared […]

The Biden economy, at its worst in fighting post-Covid supply chain snags, was not even one third of the worst inflation the U.S. has battled. But the Biden Administration worked to fight inflation by resolving the surge of a reopened economy with over 100 ships backed up in the Los Angeles harbor waiting a month to unload cargo in 2021 with parallel conditions in harbors, railroads, and airports around the nation. […]

Many Americans are still surprised to learn that the U.S. economy has seen unrivaled growth under the Biden Administration. Both the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have had to increase their growth estimates for the American economy, surprised by its resilience and superiority over every developed country. Unemployment is at record lows. Nearly one million manufacturing jobs have been added. Financial markets have notched 80 record highs. Oil and natural gas production is higher than ever before, and nearly one-third higher than Saudi Arabia and Russia.

Between the Bipartisan Infrastructure Act, the Inflation Reduction Act, and the CHIPS Act, Biden's legislative legacy is poised to create millions of new jobs in the years ahead, on top of the 16 million net new jobs already created, in stark contrast to the net loss of over 2.7 million jobs during Trump's presidency.

The elephant in the room is supposed to be inflation. Wage growth has now outpaced inflation for 18 consecutive months. American paychecks are expected to recover from the inflation erosion of the pandemic by June. Workers in industries as far ranging as dockworkers, aerospace, automotive, and trucking enjoyed pay and benefits increases of 50% to 100% with assistance from the Biden Administration. For comparison, the U.S. never fully recovered from the last time inflation ran rampant—in the 1970s. The Biden Administration will have done it in two years.

Meanwhile, government measures have recorded the steady decline in prices since inflation peaked in 2022 with this week's Consumer Price Index confirming inflation on target at the normal expected 2.6%. and producer prices up only a negligible 0.3%. But CPI, PCE, and other metrics only convolute what people really experience throughout their daily lives. Americans are savvy, as are corporations operating in a hyper-competitive capitalist system. Consumers will shop where they can find the lowest prices.

Groceries, for instance, were recently projected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to be growing at annual rate of 1.1%. However, Walmart, Target, Amazon (via Amazon Fresh and Whole Foods), Kroger, Walgreens, and Aldi have slashed prices on tens of thousands of goods by 10-30% in most cases.

Many have even doubled down amid competition for consumers. Target cut prices on another 2,000 goods ahead of the holiday season and promises 2,000 more before the end of the year. Walmart launched a new private label brand, called "bettergoods," which offers 70% of daily goods for less than $5.

The cost of milk, meat, bread, beverages, fresh fruit and vegetables, diapers, paper towels, toilet paper, and much more have notably fallen as a result. Consumers have taken notice, too. Walmart and Target have seen heightened demand for their goods because of price rollbacks and expect demand to continue into the future. […]

Input prices are coming down because Biden has successfully led the U.S. economy through unprecedented supply chain disruptions, the primary cause of the historic price inflation. […]

President-elect Trump will likely attempt to claim credit as wages continue to recover from pandemic-led inflation and as the prices of everyday goods continue to fall. He will attribute credit to his "America First" agenda, aggressive tariff policy, and self-ascribed supernatural market powers. However, let's register the history right now for accuracy. There is no question as to whom that credit should go: President Biden and his administration.

President Harry S. Truman once advised: "It is amazing what you can accomplish if you do not care who gets the credit." President Trump will offer a 21st century modification to that wisdom.

Washington Post (Opinion): Why Trump should take credit for Biden's economy
[Catherine Rampell, 11/8/24]

He shouldn't implement his economy-crashing ideas. Just claim Biden's economy as his own.

How could Donald Trump deliver on his promise to fix the U.S. economy? On Day 1, the president-elect should simply proclaim he's already fixed it — and go play golf.

By which I mean: Declare victory but do absolutely nothing else. Execute none of the economic policies he's promised and appoint no one to carry them out. Because right now, the U.S. economy is already pretty damn good, and mostly just needs a hype man. Not a global trade war, or any of Trump's other destructive, economy-crashing ideas. […]

Whether or not Americans recognize it, grocery inflation is already way down. Wage growth has already been outpacing inflation for more than a year. And the economy is already growing at a healthy pace. As a result, the U.S. economy is the envy of the world.

Americans nonetheless rate the economy quite poorly, perhaps because they're still recovering from the 2022-2023 inflationary shock. But if current trends continue, and wages continue to rise, at some point they'll notice their incomes are outrunning price growth. Who better to draw attention to this — while of course taking credit — than Trump? […]

Sure, some annoying nitpickers (ahem) might point out that the "Trump economy" come January 2025 is more or less the same as the Biden-Harris economy of fall 2024. But who cares? Much better to have Trump take credit for the good economy he inherited, than deliver the economic catastrophe his agenda foretells.

Politico: The Biden economy is about to get a new salesman: Donald Trump
[Sam Sutton, 11/15/24]

Trump hammered the administration for creating an "economic catastrophe," but some of his favorite gauges for assessing economic performance have been humming.

[…] Donald Trump is poised to enter the White House with booming markets and solid growth. Expect him to reap the political rewards. […]

[S]ome of the president-elect's favorite gauges for assessing economic performance have been humming. The stock market repeatedly hit record highs in recent months, even before his reelection sent traders into a frenzy. The economy grew at a healthy 2.7 percent pace during the third quarter. And even though the labor market has been choppy lately, the jobless rate has fallen well below where it was when he left office.

Incoming presidents who defeat an incumbent party are rarely dealt so strong a hand. For Trump, who has long treated high-level economic data as a scorecard, the challenge will be to convince the public that the economy's current trajectory is a result of his return to power. Some of his top allies on Wall Street — including financiers in line for roles in his administration — have been cranking out op-eds and cable news hits to trumpet how markets surged after he was reelected. (Trump, for his part, made a point of attributing a market surge earlier this year to his ascendance in the polls.)

CNN: It's not just Democrats — Republicans are working to Trump-proof their climate money
[Elle Nilsen and Renee Rigdon, 11/15/24]

[…] [I]t's not just Democrats gearing up to protect the Inflation Reduction Act's clean energy policies. President-elect Donald Trump is out on a limb within even his own party as he vows to the kill clean energy tax subsidies that automakers, the fossil fuel industry and Republican lawmakers have become increasingly amenable toward over the past two years.

"We need to look at the IRA, and instead of taking a sledgehammer to it, take a scalpel to it," Republican Rep. Buddy Carter of Georgia told CNN. "There are some good parts … There are parts of it that do make sense."

The "good parts" for Republicans are the hundreds of billions of dollars being funneled into clean energy projects, the overwhelming majority of which are going to Republican districts.

Close to 80% of the $243 billion-worth of projects that are either completed or under construction are in GOP districts. The same goes for another $435 billion in clean energy projects companies have announced but have not yet built, according to an exclusive CNN analysis of data from the nonpartisan Rhodium Group and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

The data shows Biden's climate law has had a profound impact on the American economy in its first two years, said Trevor Houser, a partner at Rhodium Group, a nonpartisan thinktank.

But with Trump gunning to repeal the law and Congressional Republicans looking for ways to offset new tax cuts next year, the $435 billion in new, not-yet-built projects is increasingly vulnerable.

"If that investment was to dry up, it would significantly impact the economic prospects particularly of the rural and manufacturing communities where most of that investment has been flowing," Houser told CNN.

In other words, if Republicans successfully repeal Biden's climate and clean energy law, their districts stand to lose the most.

Carter is far from the only Republican angling to defend the clean energy funds against Trump. He's one of 18 House Republicans who signed a letter to House Speaker Mike Johnson this summer strongly urging Johnson to not repeal the climate law.

"A full repeal would create a worst-case scenario where we would have spent billions of taxpayer dollars and received next to nothing in return," Republicans wrote in the letter, adding they had heard from industry and constituents "who fear the energy tax regime will once again be turned on its head due to Republican repeal efforts."

Some Republicans on that letter lost their races for reelection to Democrats, but Carter told CNN there are "enough" lawmakers who share the view "to make a difference" when it comes time to vote.

"I don't think it has to be many," he said. "Obviously, we don't have a big majority and it's going to be very tight."

Biden's climate law is a manufacturing bill by design, reopening dormant plants and opening new ones to build electric vehicles and their batteries.

The bill also has generous subsidies for wind and solar farms, nuclear power, and newer industries like hydrogen and carbon capture, which aims to scrub climate pollution out of smokestack exhaust before it reaches the atmosphere.

Carter's Georgia district is home to a massive Hyundai EV and battery production plant that was funded by the IRA and is now open. Hyundai spent nearly $7 billion to build the plant, which is expected to create over 8,000 jobs.

The district of North Carolina Rep. Richard Hudson — the head of House Republicans' campaign committee — has seen more investment than any other, thanks to a colossal Toyota car battery plant being built there. Rhodium and MIT data shows Toyota has already pushed more than $8.2 billion into building the factory and has pledged to spend $5.7 billion more as it plans to triple the factory's size.

"Those facilities are going to be creating a lot of jobs and economic growth," said Adrian Deveny, founder of consulting firm Climate Vision and a former top Senate staffer who led the IRA clean energy negotiations. "If you have legislation that repeals the tax credits, those facilities are going to stop construction, or they'll never even start construction."

The bill also contained billions in consumer subsidies to help millions of households save money on solar panels, electric vehicles, appliances and home insulation. The conventional wisdom among many experts is these consumer subsidies could be more vulnerable to Republican repeal efforts than the industry money, but subsidies like the EV tax credits help drive demand for electric vehicles – necessary to keep factories in GOP districts open.

"The extent to which (House Republicans) fight to save the EV tax credits, I think really will come down to what are they hearing from those automakers about how important those tax credits are for those manufacturing facilities to be able to continue," Houser said.

Conservative groups and companies who are using the clean energy tax credits are already starting to lobby lawmakers to save them.

"The need to explain what the tax credits do, particularly in the long run, is incredibly important," Heather Reams, the president of the right-leaning nonprofit Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions, told CNN. "To demonstrate that these tax credits are really a net profit for the economy, that really is the name of the game."