ICYMI: Moody Analytics Predicts Significant Regional Economic Fallout if Debt Ceiling Isn't Raised, Including State Specific Job Impacts in All 50 states
Today, Moody Analytics published an updated economic analysis of the economic impacts in all fifty states of a brief and prolonged debt limit breach.
New York, where the President is traveling today, would lose more than 398,000 jobs. States near or dependent on "national laboratories or military bases, including Alaska, Hawaii and New Mexico," would be very vulnerable. "Disruptions to Medicare and Medicaid payments are a problem for the healthcare industry…especially in rural areas. Other government transfers to households, including Social Security and unemployment insurance benefits [would be]…delayed," causing "spending and confidence [to] weaken, especially in areas with a larger number of lower-income households or a larger retiree population… Tourist- and business travel-dependent states such as Arizona, Florida and Nevada will experience sharp job losses; so do the vehicle industry-dependent Michigan and South Carolina economies as vehicle sales and production fall. Other manufacturing centers like Tennessee and Kentucky face challenges as firms struggle to raise capital and remain afloat given softness in financial markets."
Because MAGA Republicans are choosing to hold our economy hostage by threatening America with default unless we agree to their extreme wish list, "What once seemed unimaginable now seems a real threat."
Yesterday, the President told Congressional leaders that he is prepared to begin a separate discussion about budget and spending priorities—but not under the threat of default. Job losses per state in a prolonged default scenario can be found below:
State | Job Loss in Prolonged Default Scenario (thousands, peak to trough) |
Alaska | 11.3 |
Alabama | 109.5 |
Arkansas | 68.8 |
Arizona | 188.1 |
California | 841.6 |
Colorado | 139.3 |
Connecticut | 75.6 |
DC | 28.5 |
Delaware | 21.4 |
Florida | 474.7 |
Georgia | 249.4 |
Hawaii | 16.9 |
Iowa | 73.9 |
Idaho | 44.4 |
Illinois | 290.6 |
Indiana | 164.8 |
Kansas | 72.5 |
Kentucky | 113.9 |
Louisiana | 69.4 |
Massachusetts | 175 |
Maryland | 119.7 |
Maine | 31.7 |
Michigan | 239.4 |
Minnesota | 138.8 |
Missouri | 163.7 |
Mississippi | 64 |
Montana | 23.5 |
North Carolina | 236.1 |
North Dakota | 18.8 |
Nebraska | 45.7 |
New Hampshire | 34.8 |
New Jersey | 193.4 |
New Mexico | 37.5 |
Nevada | 90 |
New York | 398.3 |
Ohio | 296.5 |
Oklahoma | 77.3 |
Oregon | 104.2 |
Pennsylvania | 269 |
Rhode Island | 23.2 |
South | 127.5 |
South | 22.1 |
Tennessee | 179 |
Texas | 561.7 |
Utah | 80.4 |
Virginia | 195.4 |
Vermont | 14.1 |
Washington | 187.8 |
Wisconsin | 153.6 |
West Virginia | 34.4 |
Wyoming | 14.4 |
Total | 7405.6 |
Read full analysis here.
Joseph R. Biden, Jr., ICYMI: Moody Analytics Predicts Significant Regional Economic Fallout if Debt Ceiling Isn't Raised, Including State Specific Job Impacts in All 50 states Online by Gerhard Peters and John T. Woolley, The American Presidency Project https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/node/361688