Joe Biden

ICYMI: Moody Analytics Predicts Significant Regional Economic Fallout if Debt Ceiling Isn't Raised, Including State Specific Job Impacts in All 50 states

May 10, 2023

Today, Moody Analytics published an updated economic analysis of the economic impacts in all fifty states of a brief and prolonged debt limit breach.

New York, where the President is traveling today, would lose more than 398,000 jobs. States near or dependent on "national laboratories or military bases, including Alaska, Hawaii and New Mexico," would be very vulnerable. "Disruptions to Medicare and Medicaid payments are a problem for the healthcare industry…especially in rural areas. Other government transfers to households, including Social Security and unemployment insurance benefits [would be]…delayed," causing "spending and confidence [to] weaken, especially in areas with a larger number of lower-income households or a larger retiree population… Tourist- and business travel-dependent states such as Arizona, Florida and Nevada will experience sharp job losses; so do the vehicle industry-dependent Michigan and South Carolina economies as vehicle sales and production fall. Other manufacturing centers like Tennessee and Kentucky face challenges as firms struggle to raise capital and remain afloat given softness in financial markets."

Because MAGA Republicans are choosing to hold our economy hostage by threatening America with default unless we agree to their extreme wish list, "What once seemed unimaginable now seems a real threat."

Yesterday, the President told Congressional leaders that he is prepared to begin a separate discussion about budget and spending priorities—but not under the threat of default. Job losses per state in a prolonged default scenario can be found below:

State Job Loss in Prolonged Default Scenario (thousands, peak to trough)
Alaska 11.3
Alabama 109.5
Arkansas 68.8
Arizona 188.1
California 841.6
Colorado 139.3
Connecticut 75.6
DC 28.5
Delaware 21.4
Florida 474.7
Georgia 249.4
Hawaii 16.9
Iowa 73.9
Idaho 44.4
Illinois 290.6
Indiana 164.8
Kansas 72.5
Kentucky 113.9
Louisiana 69.4
Massachusetts 175
Maryland 119.7
Maine 31.7
Michigan 239.4
Minnesota 138.8
Missouri 163.7
Mississippi 64
Montana 23.5
North Carolina 236.1
North Dakota 18.8
Nebraska 45.7
New Hampshire 34.8
New Jersey 193.4
New Mexico 37.5
Nevada 90
New York 398.3
Ohio 296.5
Oklahoma 77.3
Oregon 104.2
Pennsylvania 269
Rhode Island 23.2
South 127.5
South 22.1
Tennessee 179
Texas 561.7
Utah 80.4
Virginia 195.4
Vermont 14.1
Washington 187.8
Wisconsin 153.6
West Virginia 34.4
Wyoming 14.4
Total 7405.6

Read full analysis here.

Joseph R. Biden, Jr., ICYMI: Moody Analytics Predicts Significant Regional Economic Fallout if Debt Ceiling Isn't Raised, Including State Specific Job Impacts in All 50 states Online by Gerhard Peters and John T. Woolley, The American Presidency Project https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/node/361688

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