Trump Campaign Press Release - Record Economic Growth, A Record Recovery

Key Takeaways:

• The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 33.1 percent in the third quarter according to new data from the Commerce Department, again beating economists' expectations
• This is a new record for quarterly economic growth, and is nearly double the previous record set 70 years ago
• The U.S. economy is seeing an historic economic recovery under President Trump
• The economy has added back 11 million jobs over the last five months, and the unemployment rate has nearly been cut in half to 7.9 percent
• Economists had predicted the unemployment rate would not be this low even by the end of 2021
• Joe Biden would be the worst person to put in charge of America's economy right now - having led the slowest economic "recovery" since the Great Depression
• In the last five months, the economy has recovered 50 percent of all jobs lost due to the pandemic, something that took Joe Biden two and a half years to do
• The unemployment rate has nearly been cut in half since April; it took five and a half years for Biden's "recovery" to achieve the same reduction in unemployment
• GDP has recovered two-thirds of its losses due to the pandemic in just one quarter; it took a year to do this in Biden's "recovery"
• The Biden-led "recovery" failed American workers, families, and businesses
• Biden's "recovery" lost 192,000 manufacturing jobs, created stagnant wage growth, saw 800,000 Americans fall into poverty, and left the middle class behind

Economic Growth In The Third Quarter Smashed The Previous Record

The U.S. Economy Grew At A 33.1 Percent Annualized Rate In The Third Quarter, A Record Amount. (Bureau Of Economic Analysis, Accessed 10/29/20)

• Previously, The Largest Quarterly GDP Growth On Record Was 16.7 Percent In 1950. (Bureau Of Economic Analysis, Accessed 10/28/20)

The Largest Quarterly GDP Growth When Joe Biden Was Vice President Was 5.5 Percent In 2013 Q3. (Bureau Of Economic Analysis, Accessed 10/25/20)

Growth Beat Economists' Expectations

S&P Global Forecast 29.5 Percent Annualized GDP Growth In The Third Quarter. ("Economic Forecasts: Third Quarter 2020," S&P Global, 9/20)

Bank Of America Forecast 27 Percent Annualized GDP Growth In The Third Quarter. (Ben Winck, "Bank Of America Boosts 3rd-Quarter GDP Forecast And Lowers 4th-Quarter Outlook On Mix Of Pros And Cons," Business Insider, 9/11/20)

Morgan Stanley Forecast 27 Percent Annualized GDP Growth For The Third Quarter. ("Bank Of America Boosts 3rd-Quarter GDP Forecast And Lowers 4th-Quarter Outlook On Mix Of Pros And Cons," Business Insider, 9/11/20)

The Congressional Budget Office Projected 23.5 Percent Annualized GDP Growth In The Third Quarter. (Phil Swagel, "CBO's Current Projections Of Output, Employment, And Interest Rates And A Preliminary Look At Federal Deficits For 2020 And 2021," Congressional Budget Office, 4/24/20)

Economists Surveyed By The Federal Reserve Bank Of Philadelphia Predicted 19.1 Percent Annualized GDP Growth In The Third Quarter. ("Third Quarter 2020 Survey Of Professional Forecasters," Federal Reserve Bank Of Philadelphia, 8/14/20)

Kiplinger Projected 18 Percent Annualized GDP Growth In The Third Quarter. (David Payne, "Recovery Has Begun, But Progress May Slow," Kiplinger, 8/27/20)

The New York Federal Reserve Projected 13.75 Percent Annualized GDP Growth. ("Nowcasting Report," Federal Reserve Bank Of New York, Accessed 10/28/20)

THE GREAT AMERICAN COMEBACK CONTINUES

The Economy Has Gained Back 11.4 Million Jobs So Far, And The Unemployment Rate Has Been Cut Nearly In Half

The Economy Has Added Back 11.4 Million Jobs In The Last 5 Months, More Than Half Of The Jobs Lost Due To The Pandemic. (Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 10/2/20)

The Unemployment Rate Has Fallen From 14.7 Percent In April To 7.9 Percent In September. (Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 10/2/20)

Jobs Are Being Added Back And The Unemployment Rate Is Falling Faster Than Experts Predicted

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) Projected That The Unemployment Rate For 2021 Would Be 10.1 Percent, And That It Would Only Decrease To 9.5 Percent By The End Of 2021. "The labor market is expected to improve after the third quarter, with a rebound in hiring and a significant reduction in furloughs as the degree of social distancing diminishes—leading to an increase in business activity and an increase in the demand for workers. In particular, the unemployment rate is projected to decline to 9.5 percent by the end of 2021. Under that projection, the unemployment rate at the end of 2021 would be about 6 percentage points higher than the rate in CBO's economic projection produced in January 2020, and the labor force would have about 6 million fewer people." (Phill Swagel, "CBO's Current Projections Of Output, Employment, And Interest Rates And A Preliminary Look At Federal Deficits For 2020 And 2021," Congressional Budget Office, 4/24/20)

JPMorgan Projected That The Unemployment Rate Would Only Fall To 10.9 Percent By The End Of 2020. "Economists at the bank now peg their base-case scenario for unemployment at the end of 2020 at 10.9%, up from a prediction of 6.6% when it reported first-quarter earnings. That dimmed outlook comes as earlier-than-expected rehiring during May and June still left 20 million out of work, and as business reopenings are being rolled back in some regions." (Lisa Bellfuss, "What JPMorgan's Earnings Outlook Says About The U.S. Economy. Hint: It's Not Great," Barron's, 7/15/20)

• JPMorgan Predicted Unemployment Would Still Hover Around 8 Percent At The End Of 2021. "More interesting is where JPMorgan sees the U.S. economy at the end of 2021. Unemployment will still hover around 8%, the bank says, and GDP will still contract—a call that contrasts with many other Wall Street firms expecting a return to growth next year." (Lisa Bellfuss, "What JPMorgan's Earnings Outlook Says About The U.S. Economy. Hint: It's Not Great," Barron's, 7/15/20)

Goldman Sachs Projected The Unemployment Rate Would Only Fall To 10 Percent At The End Of 2020 And Stay Above 8 Percent Through 2021. "Goldman Sachs expects the unemployment rate to stand around 10% at the end of 2020. For context, that matches the worst levels of the Great Recession. And even by the end of 2021, Goldman Sachs sees unemployment above 8%." (Matt Egan, "Goldman Sachs Issues Warning About US Unemployment," CNN, 5/13/20)

The Federal Reserve Projected Unemployment Would Only Fall To 9.3 Percent By The End Of 2020. "Federal Reserve leaders predict a slow recovery for the U.S. economy, with unemployment falling to 9.3 percent by the end of this year and to 6.5 percent by the end of 2021, after tens of millions of Americans lost their jobs in the stunning recession caused by the outbreak of the novel coronavirus." (Heather Long, "Federal Reserve Predicts Slow Recovery With Unemployment At 9.3 Percent By End Of 2020," The Washington Post, 6/10/20)

("June 10, 2020: FOMC Projections Materials, Accessible Version," U.S. Federal Reserve, 6/10/20)

The Trump Administration's Actions Have Protected American Businesses And Workers

The Paycheck Protection Program Has Provided $521 Billion To Over 5 Million U.S. Businesses, Protecting A Total Of More Than 51 Million Jobs. ("Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) Report," U.S. Small Business Administration, 7/31/20; "Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) Report," Small Business Administration, 6/30/20)

The Trump Administration Has Sent A Total Of $269 Billion In Coronavirus Relief Payments To 153 Million Americans In All 50 States. (Press Release, "IRS Statement On Economic Impact Payments By State (As Of Aug. 28, 2020)," IRS, 8/28/20)

THE ECONOMY IS RECOVERING FASTER THAN IT EVER DID UNDER JOE BIDEN

51 Percent Of All Jobs Lost Due To The Coronavirus Have Been Added Back In The Last Five Months. (Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 10/20/20)

• It Took Two Years And A Half Years – 30 Months – To Gain Back The Same Percentage Of Jobs During The Joe Biden-Led "Recovery." (Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 10/20/20)

The U.S. Economy Expanded By 33.1 Percent In The Third Quarter On An Annual Basis, A Record Amount. (Bureau Of Economic Analysis, Accessed 10/29/20)

• It Took Four Quarters To Gain Back The GDP Losses From The Great Recession Under Biden's "Recovery." (Bureau Of Economic Analysis, Accessed 10/25/20)

The Unemployment Rate Has Fallen From 14.7 Percent In April To 7.9 Percent In September, A Decrease Of 46 Percent In Five Months. (Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 10/29/20)

• It Took Five And A Half Years For The Unemployment Rate To Decrease By The Same Percentage During Joe Biden's "Recovery" - From 10 Percent In October 2009 To 5.4 Percent In March 2015. (Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 10/29/20)

THE BIDEN-LED "RECOVERY" WAS THE SLOWEST SINCE THE GREAT DEPRESSION

CNN 2016 Headline: "Yes, This Is The Slowest U.S. Recovery Since WWII." (Heather Long And Tami Luhby, "Yes, This Is The Slowest U.S. Recovery Since WWII," CNN, 10/5/16)

• "If You Look Solely At The Average Rate Of GDP Growth, It's True That That The Economy Recovered More Slowly After The Great Recession Than During Previous Rebounds." (Tara Subramaniam And Katie Lobosco, "Fact Check: How Trump's Economy Compares To Obama's," CNN, 2/19/20)

According To Congress' Joint Economic Committee, Economic Growth Following The 2009 Recession Grew At The Weakest Rate Of Any Post-1960 Recessions, With Growth Averaging Just 2.3 Percent Compared To An Average Of 4 Percent. "The current recovery continues to rank last among post-1960 recoveries in terms of real economic growth. Since the recession ended in the second quarter of 2009, real GDP has grown at an average annual rate of 2.3 percent. In other post-1960 recoveries, real GDP expanded at an average annual rate of 4.0 percent during the comparable five-and-one-half year period (see Figure 4)." ("The 2015 Joint Economic Report," Joint Economic Committee, 3/17/15)

The U.S. Did Not Recover Lost Manufacturing Jobs During Biden's "Recovery"

During The Biden "Recovery," The U.S. Economy Lost 192,000 Manufacturing Jobs. (Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 7/9/20)

Wage Growth Was Stagnant Under Biden

Under The Biden Recovery, Wage Growth Averaged 2.2 Percent. (Bureau Of Labor Statistics , Accessed 5/21/20)

In A "Strong Economy" Wage Growth Would Be Around 3 To 4 Percent. "That's below the 3 percent to 4 percent that would be expected in a strong economy, according to Glassdoor economist Andrew Chamberlain. Wage growth usually has reached at least 3 percent after previous recessions."(Aimee Picchi, "Looking For Wage Growth? Then Consider These Jobs," MarketWatch, 1/8/16)

The Middle Class Was Left Behind Under Biden

2016 Washington Post Headline: "The Middle Class Is Shrinking Just About Everywhere In America." (Emily Badger And Christopher Ingraham, "The Middle Class Is Shrinking Just About Everywhere In America," The Washington Post, 5/11/16)

A December 2015 Pew Study Found That For The First Time In Four Decades, The Middle Class Was No Longer The Majority. "After more than four decades of serving as the nation's economic majority, the American middle class is now matched in number by those in the economic tiers above and below it. In early 2015, 120.8 million adults were in middle-income households, compared with 121.3 million in lower- and upper-income households combined, a demographic shift that could signal a tipping point, according to a new Pew Research Center analysis of government data." ("The American Middle Class Is Losing Ground," Pew Research Center, 12/9/15)

• A December 2015 Gallup Survey Found That Only 51 Percent Of U.S. Adults Identify As Middle-Class, Down From 63 Percent Of Those Polled In 2008. "A Gallup survey this spring showed that just 51% of U.S. adults considered themselves middle or upper middle class, with 48% saying they are part of the lower or working class. As recently as 2008, 63% of those polled by Gallup said they were middle class." (Don Lee, "Middle-Class Families, Pillar Of The American Dream, Are No Longer In The Majority, Study Finds," Los Angeles Times, 12/9/15)

According To A September 2016 Gallup Poll, 57 Percent Of Americans Believed The U.S. Economy Was "Getting Worse." (Gallup, 3,040 A, 2.0% MoE, 9/5-11/16)

In 2016, The U.S. Homeownership Rate Hit Its Lowest Level "Since 1965." "The homeownership rate, the proportion of households that are owner-occupied, fell to 62.9%, half a percentage point lower than the second quarter of 2015 and 0.6 percentage point lower than the first quarter 2016, the Census Bureau said on Thursday. That was the lowest figure since 1965." (Jeffrey Sparshott, "U.S. Homeownership Rate Falls To Five-Decade Low," The Wall Street Journal, 7/28/16)

The Biden Economy Left Behind Large Parts Of America

In 2016, The National Association Of Counties Found That Under Biden, 93 Percent Of Counties In The United States Had "Failed To Fully Recover" From The Recession. "More than six years after the economic expansion began, 93% of counties in the U.S. have failed to fully recover from the blow they suffered during the recession. Nationwide, 214 counties, or 7% of 3,069, had recovered last year to prerecession levels on four indicators: total employment, the unemployment rate, size of the economy and home values, a study from the National Association of Counties released Tuesday found." (Eric Morath, "Six Years Later, 93% Of U.S. Counties Haven't Recovered From Recession, Study Finds," The Wall Street Journal, 1/12/16)

14 Million Americans Left The U.S. Workforce Under Biden

From January 2009 To January 2017, 13,906,000 Americans Left The Labor Force. (Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 7/9/20)

Nearly 800,000 Americans Fell Into Poverty Under Biden

From 2008 To 2016, 787,000 Americans Fell Into Poverty. (U.S. Census Bureau, 9/19)

Business Creation Stagnated Under Biden

By 2016, Business Formation Had Still Not Returned To Its Pre-Recession Peak, With The Level Of New Businesses Created Annually Stagnating Around 400,000. "To provide some context, consider that, by one measure (the Business Dynamics Statistics database compiled at the U.S. Census Bureau), new formation of business firms finally rebounded slightly in 2011, after four years of decline from its peak of more than 560,000 new businesses created in 2006 to a low point of fewer than 390,000 new firms started in 2010.New business formation continued to inch upward for several more years (401,000 in 2011, 411,000 in 2012), before dropping slightly in 2013 to 406,000." (Tom Miller, "Entrepreneurship & Economic Dynamism: Marginal Return From Health Policy Thus Far," Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation, 2016)

At A Time When Businesses And Workers Were Struggling, The Obama-Biden Administration Unleashed A Flood Of New Regulations At A Cost Of $743 Billion

An August 2016 Analysis By The American Action Forum (AAF) Showed That The Obama-Biden Administration Had Issued 600 Major Regulations, "20 Percent More Than" Under The Bush Administration. "Now, the administration has once again reached another record-breaking figure: 600 major regulations in roughly 7.5 years, which is 20 percent more than the previous president did in eight years." (Sam Batkins, "600 Major Regulations," American Action Forum, 8/6/16)

Obama-Biden's 600 Major Regulations Came At A Cost of "At Least $743 Billion." "What is the economic burden from these 600 major regulations? According to American Action Forum (AAF) research, based on data provided by agencies, it's at least $743 billion (including deregulatory measures) and 194 million paperwork burden hours (President Bush issued roughly $2 billion in major rules in 2009). To put those figures in perspective, $743 billion is larger than the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Norway and Israel combined." (Sam Batkins, "600 Major Regulations," American Action Forum, 8/6/16)

• Obama-Biden's 600 Major Regulations Amounted To "A $2,294 Regulatory Imposition On Every Person In The United States." "It is a $2,294 regulatory imposition on every person in the United States. In the equivalent amount of time to complete 194 million additional hours of paperwork, it would take 97,429 employees working full-time (2,000 hours a year) to comply with these new federal requirements. That's roughly the population of Albany, NY working full-time filling out government forms." (Sam Batkins, "600 Major Regulations," American Action Forum, 8/6/16)