Article by Will Hurd: "Will Robots Take My Job?"

65% of U.S. Adults Say They Are Concerned That AI Could Lead To Job Losses

Photo: The Norwegian company 1X Technologies expects to launch its Neo robot (left) in 2023. The American robotics company Figure is working on its Figure 01 humanoid robot (right) – 1X Technologies/Figure

Artificial Intelligence and robotics are rapidly evolving industries and technologies, raising the question: "Will robots take my job?" I've explored this question for almost a decade. I held the first congressional hearing on artificial intelligence (AI) in 2015, I wrote the U.S. national strategy for AI that was signed into law in 2020, and since being out of government I've both advised and served on the boards of companies on the cutting edge of artificial intelligence. I recently wrote a primer on the subject called An Artificial Intelligence Definition for Dummies.

Here is what I have learned from these collective experiences. We can have an economy where AI and automation don't lead to significant unemployment, but instead get a greater number of people engaged in more meaningful, fulfilling work that leads to an improved quality of life for everyone. However, to achieve this vision where AI doesn't replace human workers around the world, we must act now. 

Will A Robot Take My job? – The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on the Job Market and Economy

Artificial intelligence has revolutionized the way we work, transforming industries and changing the face of businesses around the world. In May 2023, market research analysts from Morning Consult assessed through public opinion polling on artificial intelligence how these trends were being viewed by human workers across several industries.

• Nearly two-thirds (65%) of U.S. adults fear AI may cause job losses, according to the over 13,000+ respondents. Tech and finance workers expressed the most concern. However, opinions on AI creating new jobs for human employees were split, with 37% agreeing and 39% disagreeing.

Shares Of Employed U.S. Adults in Each Industry Who Said They Are Concerned That AI Will Result In Job Loss For Their Industry:

Shares Of Employed U.S. Adults in Each Industry Who Said They Are Concerned That AI Will Result In Job Loss For Their Industry:

AI can be a tool that boosts the productivity and efficiency of human workers by eliminating routine tasks and allowing employees to focus on more value-added tasks. It's only a matter of time before AI is ubiquitous through our society like the Internet or smart phones.

Machines are becoming more intelligent and capable of performing complex tasks that we always thought could only be done by the human brain. This trend is causing many to ask whether automation, AI, or a combination of both will decrease the amount of jobs requiring a human being or even replace human workers altogether in the near future.

The ultimate question we should be asking ourselves, our leaders, and those who are making this technology is: Can we ensure AI creates new jobs and opportunities, while preventing widespread job losses and economic disruption? Put another way, can we ensure we take advantage of technology before it takes advantage of us?

The Relationship Between Artificial Intelligence and Automation

Photo: General Motors installed a Unimate robot arm at its Trenton, New Jersey factory, changing assembly-line work forever.

While both automation and artificial intelligence are capable of reducing human intervention in processes, they differ fundamentally. Automation refers to a system or process that operates based on predefined rules, without the need for human involvement. From industrial robots on assembly lines to computer scripts performing repetitive tasks, automation has been a cornerstone of modern industry.

In contrast, AI seeks to replicate human intelligence and decision-making, performing tasks that typically require human cognition, such as pattern recognition, learning from experience, or natural language understanding. Unlike traditional automation, which follows rigid instructions, AI systems have the capacity to learn and adapt over time through machine learning and have even recently displayed the ability to match human creativity.

Historically, human workers have expressed concerns about both automation and artificial intelligence as they have the potential to automate tasks, improve efficiencies, and consequently reduce the need for human intervention in many job roles.

The Historical Impact of Automation on Human Workers

Photo: A drawing of a spinning jenny. It was invented in 1764 by James Hargreaves, an English cotton weaver. Spinners took raw materials (such as wool, flax, and cotton) and turned them into thread. The original spinning jenny did the work of 8 people. – Encyclopedia Britannica

Automation is not a new concept. It has been around for centuries. One of the first uses of automation in the workforce can be traced back to the Industrial Revolution in the late 18th Century. The invention of machines like the spinning jenny and the power loom (a machine for weaving cloth) automated the process of weaving and spinning, which were previously done manually. This marked the beginning of the shift from manual labor to mechanized work in industries such as textiles.

Spinners became angry about the competition and automation risk to their livelihood, because the invention of the spinning jenny enabled a machine to do the work of eight people. In 1768, a group of spinners broke into Hargreaves' house and destroyed his machines to prevent them from taking away their work. However, increased production per person eventually led to the drop in prices paid for thread.

If we consider automation in a broader sense, even earlier examples exist. For instance, water wheels and windmills, used for grinding grain or pumping water, were early forms of automation that replaced human or animal labor, and these technologies date back to ancient times.

In the context of modern automation, the first industrial robot, Unimate, was installed on a General Motors assembly line in New Jersey in 1959 and began to be mass produced in 1961. It performed tasks that were dangerous for humans, such as handling hot die-cast parts and welding. 

The use of automation has allowed for greater efficiency, productivity, and cost savings in many industries. For example, factories have been able to automate their production processes, allowing for faster and more consistent production. However, with the benefits of automation come drawbacks. The increasing use of automation has led to some jobs and even careers becoming obsolete.

Introducing AI In the Workplace

Photo: Founding fathers of AI – scienceabc.com

Just like automation, AI is not a new concept. The term "Artificial Intelligence" was first coined by legendary American computer scientist and cognitive scientist John McCarthy in 1956, and the first working rudimentary AI programs were developed in the 1950s and 1960s.

AI's integration into the workplace has picked up pace in recent years with developments in the field like reinforcement learning. Having algorithms that can learn from its experiences and make predictions based on patterns it observes, has made AI a valuable asset for many industries.

Pros of AI in the Workplace – Efficiency, Accuracy, and Productivity

Photo: Aurora's autonomous vehicles, transporting FedEx shipments between Fort Worth and El Paso, signify a new era in freight delivery, with daily and weekly trips increasing in frequency.

One of the biggest advantages of AI in the workplace is its ability to increase efficiency, accuracy, and productivity. AI can perform tasks faster and with greater accuracy than humans, reducing the risk of errors and improving overall performance. This allows businesses to focus on more complex tasks and make better use of their time and resources. AI helping businesses identify patterns and trends in data, enables those businesses to make more informed decisions.

As of early 2023, there are roughly 10 million unfilled jobs in the United States alone. Seven million of those job openings are for essential roles in warehouses, transportation, and retail. Attrition rates are high in many of these roles. However, there are only about 6 million people available to fill these open positions. Many warehouse suppliers predict they will run out of people to hire by 2024. This labor shortage scenario could be significantly alleviated by harnessing the potential of AI to automate tasks and improve efficiency.

Cons of AI in the Workplace – Job Displacement, Lack of Human Interaction, and Potential Bias

Photo: An American Express Travel Services Office in London, England. According to Bureau of Labor Statistics data, the number of full-time travel agency employees in the U.S. had fallen from a peak of 124,000 in 2000 to 64,000 twelve years later.

While some jobs will be completely automated, others will be transformed, requiring workers to learn new skills and adapt to new roles. This could lead to a skills gap, where there is a shortage of workers with the necessary skills to perform these new roles.

Another concern is the lack of human interaction that comes with the use of AI. While AI can perform many tasks faster and more accurately than humans, it lacks the emotional intelligence and empathy that is necessary for many jobs. This can lead to a loss of personal touch in customer service and other areas of business.

There is also the potential for bias in AI systems, which can lead to discrimination. AI systems are only as good as the data they are trained on, and if that data is biased, the system will be biased as well. This can lead to unfair treatment of individuals or groups and can perpetuate existing inequalities.

Examples of Successful AI Integration in the Workplace

Photo: The 1997 rematch between chess Garry Kasparov and IBM's computer Deep Blue. It was the first time a current world champion had lost a match to a computer under tournament conditions. 

Despite the concerns about AI in the workplace, there are many examples of successful integration. For example, AI is being used in the healthcare industry to analyze medical images and assist with diagnosis. In the financial industry, AI is being used to detect fraud and predict market trends. AI is also being used in manufacturing to automate production lines and improve quality control.

There have been many impactful applications of AI that the public has been using for years. Some examples are:

• IBM's Deep Blue: In 1997, IBM's chess-playing computer, Deep Blue, defeated world chess champion Garry Kasparov in a six-game match. This was a landmark moment, demonstrating that AI could outperform humans at complex strategy games.
• Google's Search Algorithms: Google uses AI and machine learning to improve its search results, providing more accurate and personalized results for users. AI has helped Google's search engine understand the intent behind users' search queries and provide more relevant results.
• Self-Driving Cars: Companies like Waymo and Tesla have been developing self-driving cars using AI. These vehicles use a combination of machine learning, computer vision, and sensor data to navigate roads and traffic.
• Speech Recognition and Personal Assistants: AI is behind the voice recognition capabilities of personal assistant technologies like Apple's Siri, Amazon's Alexa, and Google Assistant. These systems use natural language processing (NLP) to understand and respond to human speech.
• Recommendation Systems: AI is used in the recommendation algorithms of platforms like Netflix and Spotify to personalize content for users based on their past behaviors and preferences.

Each of these use cases has had a significant impact on the field of AI and demonstrated the technology's potential for practical, real-world applications. Nevertheless, it was the introduction of large language models (LLMs), like ChatGPT, that brought generative AI to the forefront of our consciousness and reignited the concerns about job displacement previously associated with automation. 

Historically automation sparked concerns primarily from blue-collar workers due to the mechanization of manual tasks. Now AI is generating similar worries from white-collar workers, since its capabilities encroach upon the intellectual and administrative tasks traditionally safe from technological displacement. 

What is Generative AI? 

Photo: ChatGPT is part of a fresh wave of generative AI tools – GABBY JONES/BLOOMBERG NEWS

Generative AI is a subset of artificial intelligence, but it takes things a step further. Instead of just learning to understand and respond to inputs – like a chatbot that answers customer service inquiries – generative AI can create new, original content. This can range from writing an article, composing music, creating a design, to even generating a realistic image from a simple text description.

With the help of vast amounts of data and complex algorithms, generative AI is not just mimicking or repeating patterns it's learned, but it's generating entirely new ideas.

A Blueprint for the Age of Artificial Intelligence

The use of AI in the workplace is only going to increase in the coming years, and it is important for businesses and workers to prepare for the changes that are coming to our immediate future. We need to take the following strategic actions to ensure that the future of AI and the workforce is not a dystopian one.

Cultivate a Workforce Ready for AI-Driven Economic Growth and Employment Opportunities

The onset of AI is ushering in a new industrial revolution, offering the potential to shape new industries and generate significant economic benefits. The transition, however, presents challenges for workers as AI automates some jobs but also creates new high-tech roles. This shift demands strategic workforce development:

• Skill Development: Cultivate workforce skills that complement AI, such as creativity, problem-solving, and domain expertise, along with hard skills like computer programming, data science, statistics, and machine learning.
• Education Investment: Boost investment in STEM education and incorporate computer science into the standard curriculum in middle school to prepare children for future jobs.
• Vocational Training: Increase funding for vocational and technical training programs that prepare workers for careers in AI and related fields.

Secure National Interests through AI

Photo: A TRV-150 unmanned ariel vehicle (UAV) used by the U.S. Army – Raymond Valdez / US Army (April 20, 2023)

AI plays a critical role in national security, and as a country we need to stay on the cutting edge of this technology. For every positive use there is for AI there is a nefarious one. We need to be able to defend against bad use cases. Key steps include:

• AI for Defense: Equip our military and intelligence communities with the resources they need to leverage AI.
• Invest in Cybersecurity: The future of cybersecurity will be good AI versus bad AI. We need to prioritize investment in AI-based cybersecurity solutions to address growing security concerns.

Craft Legislation to Enforce Ethical Practices and Regulatory Frameworks

Photo: Will Hurd chairing one of the many hearings about technology in Congress.

AI's future requires a robust ethical framework and effective regulation. With privacy, bias, and misuse all potential and ongoing issues, it's vital to ensure AI is built upon the following ideals:

• Transparency: This means understanding how an AI system makes decisions. It's key to building trust and preventing misuse.
• Accountability: This is about identifying who's responsible when AI decisions lead to negative outcomes. It ensures parties involved in creating AI can be held liable for its behavior.
• Non-discrimination: This principle ensures AI systems don't amplify existing biases. It involves careful data curation and rigorous testing to identify and mitigate biases.

To make these principles the ethical backbone of AI deployment and use, we need to accomplish these essential measures:

• Law Abiding: Confirm that all AI tools abide by the law, with no special exemptions.
• Data Ownership: Codify into law that an individual owns and can control all the data that makes up their digital footprint.
• Licensing Authority: Just like a company needs a license to build a nuclear power plant, powerful AI models over a certain size should need to obtain a license from a regulatory authority. 
• IP Clarity: Implement legislation clarifying the importance of intellectual property protection and the necessity for creators to be appropriately compensated when their creations are utilized in AI-generated content. Content owners should receive significant benefit and be duly rewarded for the use of their intellectual property.  

To develop, craft and pass legislation to achieve these objectives we are going to need to elect tech-literate officials who understand these technologies that are going to shape our future.

Assert Global Leadership through Public-Private Partnerships

America's leadership in AI research, development, and ethics is vital in the global landscape. Establishing this foothold requires strategic public-private partnerships:

• Collaborative Innovation: Partner with tech companies, universities, and research institutions to drive AI innovation and address domestic and global challenges.

We Can Balance Human and AI Capabilities in the Workplace

As we navigate the AI era, it's clear that AI's role in our workplaces will be crucial. Work will be a blend of human creativity and AI efficiency.

AI's integration will redefine roles and create new ones. This will require adaptability and the need to evolve. We must focus on reskilling our workforce for future jobs, investing in education and training programs that equip people with skills to make AI work alongside us not the other way around.

A strong ethical framework must guide AI development and deployment. Transparency, accountability, and non-discrimination should be our guiding principles. We need regulations ensuring responsible and ethical AI use.

The future of work is not humans vs. AI, but humans with AI. It's about using AI as a tool that augments human capabilities, not one that replaces them. It's about striking the right balance between human creativity and AI efficiency to create a workplace that is innovative, productive, and above all else, human.

In the end, AI is just a tool, and like any tool, its impact depends on how we use it. Let's use it to build, not destroy; to create, not replace; to advance, not regress. Humanity and technology must coexist so we can create a world that is better than today.