Election Year Presidential Preference Polling and Voting Outcome

Real Clear Politics Average Accuracy Record: 2008-2016

Year Nominees Final Average Election Results Deviation*
2024 Kamala Harris 48.7 48.4 -0.3
Donald Trump 48.6 49.9 +1.3
2020 Joseph Biden 51.4 51.3 -0.1
Donald Trump 46.9 46.9 0.0
2016 Hillary Clinton 46.8 48.2 +1.4
Donald Trump 43.6 46.2 +2.6
2012 Barack Obama 49 51.1

+2.1

Mitt Romney 48 47.2 -0.8
2008 Barack Obama 52 52.6  -0.6
John McCain 45 46.0 +1.0

The Gallup Poll (1936-2012)#

Year Nominees Final Estimate Election Results Deviation*
2012 Barack Obama 49 51.1 +2.1
Mitt Romney 50 47.2 -2.8
2008 Barack Obama 55 52.6  -2.4
John McCain 44 46.0 +2.0
2004 George W. Bush 49 50.7  -1.7
John F. Kerry 49 48.3 +0.7
2000 George W. Bush 48 47.9   -0.1
Albert Gore, Jr. 46 48.4  -2.4
Ralph Nader 4   2.7 -1.3
1996 William J. Clinton 52 49.2 -2.8
Robert Dole 41 40.7  -0.3
H. Ross Perot 7   8.4 1.4
1992 William J. Clinton 49 43.0 -6.0
George Bush 37 37.4   0.4
H. Ross Perot 14 18.9 4.9
1988 George Bush 56 53.4 -2.6
Michael Dukakis 44 45.6  1.6
1984 Ronald Reagan 59 58.8  -0.2
Walter F. Mondale 41 40.6  -0.4
1980 Ronald Reagan 47 50.7  3.7
Jimmy Carter 44 41.0 -3.0
John Anderson 8   6.6 -1.4
1976 Jimmy Carter 48 50.1  2.1
Gerald Ford 49 48.0 -1.0
1972 Richard Nixon 62 60.7 -1.3
George McGovern 38 37.5  -0.5
1968 Richard Nixon 43 43.4   0.4
Hubert H. Humphrey 42 42.7  0.7
George Wallace 15 13.5 -1.5
1964 Lyndon B. Johnson 64 61.1 -2.9
Barry Goldwater 36 38.5  2.5
1960 John F. Kennedy 51 49.7 -1.3
Richard Nixon 49 49.5  0.5
1956 Dwight Eisenhower 59.5 57.4 -2.1
Adlai Stevenson 40.5 42.0  1.5
1952 Dwight Eisenhower 51 55.1  4.1
Adlai Stevenson 49 44.4 -4.6
1948 Harry S. Truman 44.5 49.5  5.0
Thomas E. Dewey 49.5 45.1  -4.4
Strom Thurmond 4   2.4 -1.6
1944 Franklin D. Roosevelt 51.5 53.4  1.9
Thomas E. Dewey 48.5 45.9 -2.6
1940 Franklin D. Roosevelt 52 54.7  2.7
Wendell L. Willkie 48 44.8 -3.2
1936 Franklin D. Roosevelt 55.7 60.8  5.1
Alfred M. Landon 44.3 36.5 -7.8

*Deviation is the actual vote share for the candidate ("election result") minus the final share in the relevant opinion poll(s).  A positive number means the candidate got a larger vote share than predicted by the final poll.  A negative number means the candidate got a smaller share.   For these observations, the mean deviation (or error) is -1.1, suggesting that on average the polls have been reasonably accurate.  However, the standard deviation is 2.67 indicating considerable polling errors in specific years.

#Beginning in 2016, Gallup no longer conducts voter preference surveys.

Citation: Gerhard Peters. "Election Year Presidential Preference Polling and Voting Outcome," The American Presidency Project. Ed. John T. Woolley and Gerhard Peters. Santa Barbara, CA: University of California. Online: https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/node/323909

 

 

 

Last Updated

11-3-2024