1964 - 2024
Democratic |
Republican |
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| Year | Convention | Nominee | Bounce % |
Convention | Nominee | Bounce % |
| 2024 | August 19-22 | Kamala Harris | 0 | July 15-18 | Donald Trump | 1 |
| 2020 | August 17-20 | Joseph Biden | 0 | August 24-27 | Donald Trump | 1 |
| 2016 | July 25-28 | Hillary Clinton | 2 | July 18-21 | Donald Trump | 3 |
| 2012 | Sept. 3-6 | Barack Obama | 2 | Aug. 27-30 | Mitt Romney | -1 |
| 2008 | Aug. 25-28 | Barack Obama | 4 | Sept. 1-4 | John McCain | 6 |
| 2004 | July 26-29 | John Kerry | -1 | Aug 30-Sep 2 | George W. Bush | 2 |
| 2000 | Aug. 14-17 | Al Gore | 8 | Jul 31-Aug 3 | George W. Bush | 8 |
| 1996 | Aug. 26-29 | Bill Clinton | 5 | Aug. 12-15 | Bob Dole | 3 |
| 1992 | July 13-16 | Bill Clinton | 16 | Aug. 17-20 | George Bush | 5 |
| 1988 | July 18-21 | Mike Dukakis | 7 | Aug. 15-18 | George Bush | 6 |
| 1984 | July 16-19 | Walter Mondale | 9 | Aug. 20-23 | Ronald Reagan | 4 |
| 1980 | Aug. 11-14 | Jimmy Carter | 10 | July 14-17 | Ronald Reagan | 8 |
| 1976 | July 12-15 | Jimmy Carter | 9 | Aug. 16-19 | Gerald Ford | 5 |
| 1972 | July 10-13 | George McGovern | 0 | Aug. 21-23 | Richard Nixon | 7 |
| 1968 | Aug. 26-29 | Hubert Humphrey | 2 | Aug. 5-8 | Richard Nixon | 5 |
| 1964 | Aug. 24-27 | Lyndon Johnson | 3 | July 13-16 | Barry Goldwater | 5 |
| • 2016-2020: Calculated by the APP by using Real Clear Politics and 538.com (Nate Silver) poll averages. The average published on the Monday of the convention week and average published the Monday following the convention week were used for comparison, and are rounded to whole integers. These averages include polling that ended the Sunday before the convention began and ending on the Sunday following the convention. Beginning in 2016, Gallup no longer conducts voter preference surveys. • 2008-2012: Calculated by the APP from Gallup poll ending on the Sunday before the convention and poll ending on the Sunday after the convention. • 1964-2004 data calculated by Gallup |
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Citation: Gerhard Peters. "The Post-Convention Bounce in Voters' Preference." The American Presidency Project. Ed. John T. Woolley and Gerhard Peters. Santa Barbara, CA: University of California. 1999-2020. Available from the World Wide Web: https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/node/324134